← MRC Massachusetts Regionals

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at MRC Massachusetts Regionals

decks
6 (14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 13-13-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7% avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
48.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1259 · median 1247 · range 1078–1474 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
976 Q1 1162 Q3 1329 1656
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill 14.3% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 52.5% +1.3
Fire Aggro 11.9% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 36.0% -10.5
Wind Allies 11.9% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 48.5% -0.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 9.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.9% +2.8
Water Allies 7.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.4
Fire Erupting 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.2
Slimes 4.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.5% +13.9
Fire Arcane 2.4% 0
Fire Slimes 2.4% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.3
Norm Tera Silvie 2.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.4% +3.3
Water Crux Mage 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.8% +10.8
Water Crux Merlin 2.4% 0
Wind Diana 2.4% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.4% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 46.0% -3.8
Wind Slimes 2.4% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Reclaim, Dungeon Guide, Windmill Engineer. Losers more often ran: Shifting Mirage, Shimmercloak Assassin, Reprogram.

Played more by winners
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Windmill Engineer
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Fairy Whispers
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Sadi, Blood Harvester
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Shifting Mirage
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim +1.00 3 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 3 0 0
Shifting Mirage -1.00 0 3 0
Windmill Engineer +1.00 3 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 3 0 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 3 0 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +1.00 3 0 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +1.00 3 0 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 3 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 3 0 0
Shadeblood Coating -0.67 0 2 0
Grim Foreboding -0.67 0 2 0
Curved Dagger -0.67 0 2 0
Scout the Land +0.67 2 0 0
Veiling Breeze +0.67 2 0 1
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.67 2 0 1
Gearstride Gloves -0.67 0 2 1
Idle Thoughts -0.67 0 2 0
Imperial Spy -0.67 0 2 0
Backup Charger +0.67 2 0 1
Favorable Winds -0.67 0 2 0
Verdigris Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Exploit Vulnerability -0.67 0 2 0
Dusksoul Stone -0.67 0 2 0
Cloaked Executioner -0.67 0 2 0
Incapacitate -0.67 0 2 1
Tariff Ring +0.67 2 0 1
Betraying Blade -0.67 0 2 0
Malignant Athame -0.67 0 2 0
Thieving Cut -0.67 0 2 0
Gloamspire Headhunter -0.67 0 2 0
Corhazi Outlook +0.67 2 0 1
Sirocco Operative -0.67 0 2 0
Haunting Demise -0.67 0 2 0
Vicious Slice -0.67 0 2 0
Gloamspire Mantle +0.33 1 0 1
Shimmercloak Assassin -0.33 1 2 0
Sable Remnant -0.33 0 1 2
Stifling Trap +0.33 1 0 2
Shadow Resonance -0.33 0 1 2
Reprogram -0.33 1 2 0
Innervate Agility +0.33 1 0 0
Cleansing Reunion -0.33 0 1 0
Sharpen Blade -0.33 0 1 0
Extortion Scheme -0.33 0 1 0
Zephyr -0.33 0 1 0
Slice and Dice +0.00 1 1 1
Arrow Trap +0.00 1 1 1
Poisoned Dagger +0.00 1 1 1
Ensnaring Fumes +0.00 1 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 0
Assassin's Ripper +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/6057/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike